Make a guess for the “ice out” date

The webcam is finally working again, just in time to watch the ice go out. We hope. 

Spring has been slow to appear on the Gunflint Trail.  Our "Day by Day at Bearskin Lodge" Flickr picture website serves as a diary of daily weather changes.  This photo is from early April, 2008:

Another swing picture, April 2009.  You can see we are a wee bit behind.  And we thought last winter was a long one!

 However, today's webcam photo does provide glimmers of hope.  Here is the lake today on April 28, 2009.  No, it's not exactly swimming weather out there yet, but there's water around the edge and the ice looks fairly mushy. Docks have  finally reappeared from under the snow and ice:

But I was surprised to see that this was the lake at the same time last year.  Definitely more melting had occurred last year, but it's not a dramatic difference.

 On this date last year, Kaitlin took a kayak out on the edge of the lake.  She couldn't do that yet this year.  But she'll be here another week before she heads out to Auburn, New York for the summer.  She might still get a chance.

Historically, the ice on East Bearskin Lake goes out around May 7th-8th, although I found this excited report from 2003 on BWCA.cc:  Ice went off East Bearskin Lake May 2. Docks are being attached, boat and motors put into the lake, life jackets, paddles and canoes are coming out of storage. Bearskin Lodge is gearing up for the summer season and opener!  Abundant wildlife to view, moose, lynx, rabbits, several duck, and birds returning and today our first bear of the season!  A few trees and bushes are budding and the grass is turning green, spring flowers will be out soon.  A great time to be in the Northwoods before the bugs come out!
 

We definitely won't make that early date.  Last year the ice went out at about the average date, May 8th, even though right up to the last minute we thought an ice auger would be the essential equipment needed for the fishing opener. Warm temperatures are forecast for awhile now.  Any guesses for this year's  "ice out" date?  Post your guess by making a comment below.  We'll see who comes the closest.

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5 Responses to “Make a guess for the “ice out” date”

  1. The Johnson Five says:

    We’ll go with May 10th. Late, but just a little.Just so it’s gone before July.

  2. Sarah Dale says:

    We live on Lake Minnetonka in the cities and the official ice out is April 15th give or take a couple of days. Even with the cold winter, this year was about right on. Therefore, I’ll go with May 9th.

    Sarah Dale

  3. Steve says:

    Ice went out on Big Sturgeon just a couple days ago. I say you will be out on May 8. Or late August, if this cold weather holds.

  4. Kaitlin says:

    May 12

  5. Nan Miller says:

    It’s probably not a fair guess because I have been watching the webcam and Flickr pics, but I’m going to go with May 7. Slightly early, not late.It seems to be changing fast.